ALL seats have their defining characteristics, and there will always be a range of influences on the way that individual voters discharge their duties at the ballot box, but the overwhelming obstacle facing the Coalition this time around was always the "it's time" factor.
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Few governments in post-war Australia last more than three terms.
With fixed four-year terms operating in NSW since the 1995 election, this means that even popular and competent governments know that anything beyond 12 years is a massive ask.
The shock, ICAC-related resignation of Gladys Berejiklian in October 2021 meant that from the day he assumed the top job, the now former premier Dominic Perrottet was on the back foot, having to lead the state through some of the worst times of the COVID pandemic, while fighting off a series of political controversies that all seemed to feature entitlement and arrogance as defining features.
The biggest of these was the "jobs for the boys" fiasco that saw former National Party leader and deputy premier John Barilaro appointed as trade commissioner to the United States, a role he we was forced to resign on June 30 last year, a fortnight after the appointment was announced.
As a consequence, the trade minister of the day, Stuart Ayres, resigned from the Perrottet cabinet, and that controversy will undoubtedly have played a role in his losing his seat of Penrith to Labor challenger Karen McKeown.
That said, the statewide swing on a two-party basis looks to be above 6 per cent to Labor. Primary tallies on Saturday night showed a swing to Labor of about 4 per cent. The Liberal vote was down by as 5 per cent and the National Party by about 2 per cent, with the Greens up by 0.5 per cent.
IN STATE ELECTION NEWS:
The consistency of the swing indicates the result was as much a general desire for change as it was a reaction to specific incidents.
Perceptions of the Hunter Region as largely safe Labor territory will only strengthen once the final counts are in, especially if first-time candidate Peree Watson can defy the odds and defeat the sitting Nationals member Dave Layzell, who was in front at the close of counting with an official NSW Electoral Council two-candidate preferred vote of 52.52 per cent to Ms Watson's 47.48 per cent.
But as both candidates have pointed out, these figures represent just 18,776 votes in a seat with 62,282 electors.
Upper Hunter had one of the highest pre-poll turnouts - 21,110, or 14th of 93 seats - according to figures posted on Saturday by the electoral commission, with Ms Watson saying, with some justification, that a big pre-poll vote usually indicates a desire for change.
For his part, Mr Layzell said yesterday afternoon that he was "quietly confident" of holding the seat, but like his challenger, said it would take the pre-polls and postals to "see a true reflection of voter sentiment".
Labor's upper house leader, Penny Sharpe, was quoted on Saturday night as saying the party had not put a huge effort into the seat, seeing it as natural National Party territory.
Given Mr Layzell's 0.5 per cent margin made it the Coalition's second-most marginal seat, some might say that was an odd decision.
If Labor is to make the most of its first term in office, there are plenty of party supporters who will tell it to remember its heartland, and to avoid the dangers of succumbing to the safe seat syndrome.
In Lake Macquarie, Labor challenger Stephen Ryan was always going to have a difficult job to upset sitting Independent Greg Piper, but the result as it stood on Saturday night - 15,502 votes for Mr Piper against just 6098 for Mr Ryan - is probably not where the challenger wanted to be.
Labor sources had described its Lake Macquarie campaign as a "two-term effort" - meaning this time around was a foundation for 2027 - but Mr Piper had responded by saying "they've said that before".
Importantly, though, Mr Piper told our reporter Madeline Link that he was unlikely to seek another term after this one, so whoever challenges for Labor next time around will likely have an easier time of it than the former Newcastle Herald journalist turned barrister had in his first tilt at political office.
To say that Labor had justifiable expectations of holding its seven Hunter seats is not to diminish the efforts that all of the sitting members and their teams put in to their campaigns, hopeful that their time in opposition was coming to an end.
Clayton Barr in Cessnock, Jodie Harrison in Charlestown, Jenny Aitchison in Maitland, Tim Crakanthorp in Newcastle, Kate Washington in Port Stephens, Yasmin Catley in Swansea and Sonia Hornery in Wallsend are all certain to be returned on Saturday's numbers, which in most seats accounted for about half of the total votes available in each electorate.
The "red tide" of Labor wins - with the Tasmanian government being the only non-Labor administration in the country - has unsurprisingly spurred a period of reflection on the conservative side of politics.
When Barry O'Farrell took the Coalition to victory in 2011, the Liberal Party gained a rare foothold in the Hunter. Andrew Cornwell (Charlestown), Robyn Parker (Maitland), Tim Owen (Newcastle) and Garry Edwards (Swansea) all took historically safe seats from Labor.
With Craig Baumann holding Port Stephens, and the conservative Independent Jeff McCloy elected Newcastle lord mayor in 2012, the Coalition was riding high in this region.
The extraordinary revelations that followed in the ICAC's Operation Spicer are well known. What looked to have been an unexpected but real Coalition beachhead in the Hunter collapsed as a result.
Callum Pull, a Liberal Newcastle councillor who challenged Mrs Hornery in Wallsend, had just 17.35 per cent of the two-candidate preferred vote at the close of counting on Saturday, compared with the 17,831 votes to the incumbent, who snagged 82.65 per cent of the vote.
"We've lost the momentum we had at that time," Cr Pull said yesterday.
In such situations, parties challenging their opponents' safe seats can have problems finding quality candidates to put themselves up for almost certain defeat.
Additionally, the Liberal Party has also been riven by the sorts of factional disputes that the conservatives like to characterise as more likely to occur in Labor than on their side of politics, but as the Coalition conducts its inevitable post-election post mortem, it will need to address these factional issues - and the delays they caused in the appointment of candidates - if it is make the most of an unsurprising, but nevertheless confronting, election less.
And if Labor is to make the most of its first term in office, there are plenty of party supporters who will tell it to remember its heartland, and to avoid the dangers of succumbing to the safe seat syndrome.
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Ian Kirkwood
Reporting journalist at the Newcastle Herald since 1987. Editorial writer, general reporter, industrial relations, industry and coal.
Reporting journalist at the Newcastle Herald since 1987. Editorial writer, general reporter, industrial relations, industry and coal.
